Mortgage rates are rising (21-03-2026)
The recent escalations in the Middle East (particularly the tensions surrounding Iran in 2026) are causing significant uncertainty in the financial markets.
The effect: While this flight to safety normally pushes interest rates down, the persistent nature of the current uncertainty is causing a volatile capital market interest rate. Lenders are now pricing in a higher “risk premium” for consumers to protect themselves against sudden market fluctuations.
How it works: When global stability feels threatened, investors tend to flee from risky stocks and move their capital into “safe” government bonds.
House prices to rise by 3% in 2026
ABN AMRO predicts that the Dutch housing market will continue to grow in 2026 and 2027, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years.
Government Policy: Official plans (such as the gradual reduction of mortgage interest tax deductions) are complex and are not expected to lower prices in the short term, as higher wages and inflation continue to push prices upward.
Price Increase: Following a strong growth of approximately 8.6% in 2025, house prices are expected to rise by 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.
Key Drivers: The increase is fueled by ongoing wage growth and a significant housing shortage. These factors outweigh the impact of slightly rising mortgage rates.
Transactions: The number of home sales is projected to decrease by 1% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. This is mainly due to a stabilization in the sale of rental properties by investors and a lack of new-build housing.
https://www.abnamro.com/nl/
BPD Housing Market Heatmap 2026
Pressure on the Dutch housing market remains extremely high, with market “overheating” increasingly spreading from the Randstad to outlying regions.
North-West Region: In the North-West, Amsterdam, Utrecht, Laren, Bloemendaal, and Haarlem are ranked among the most overheated municipalities.
Record Year 2025: The average sales price rose by 6.3% to €480,000. Transactions increased significantly (+15.6%) to nearly 239,000 homes, partly driven by investors selling off rental properties.
Catch-up outside the Randstad: The strongest price increases occurred in the north, specifically in Groningen (+9.2%) and Drenthe (+8.1%). North Holland saw the lowest increase at 4.7%.
Top 5 Municipalities: Amsterdam remains the “hottest” municipality, followed by Utrecht, Rotterdam, and The Hague. Eindhoven has entered the top 5 (driven by the growth of ASML). Notable climbers in the Top 40 include Deventer and Zoetermeer.
Affordability Issues: Only 56% of all transactions fell below the NHG (National Mortgage Guarantee) limit of €450,000. In high-demand regions like Amsterdam, Utrecht, and Eindhoven, this figure drops below 40%.
www.bpd.nl/actueel